For players with the second turn, this value must be: 7 for turn one, 8 for turn two, 9 for turn three, etc.Ĭ – Number of successes in the population: How many copies of this card you have in your deck. For players with the first turn, this value must be: 6 for turn one, 7 for turn two, 8 for turn three, etc. If you have a 35-card deck, this value should be 34, etc.ī – Sample size: How many cards you’ve drawn so far by a given turn. For example, if you have a 31-card deck, this value must be 30. It also has decent links to educational/tutorial material on probability theory too.Ī – Population size: Your deck size minus 1 (to account for your hero card). Excel has a function for this type of distribution, but it’s even easier in many cases to use a free web-based calculator. It’s called a hypergeometric distribution. There is one “best-fit” formula for finding the basic probability inherent in all these types of questions that revolve around card decks. Let’s tackle the first bullet, because it’s the basis for how to answer all the other bullets. Extrapolating from specific cards to general events, the odds of both event A AND event B happening, or of EITHER event A OR event B happening.ġ – How to calculate the probability for any number of the same card on a specific turn.Getting EITHER card A OR card B by a specific turn.Getting a combo of card A AND card B, either by the same turn or card A on turn X and card B on turn Y.Getting at least one specific card A by the turn they need it to appear, while balancing that probability against having too many of that card when they don’t want it to appear.When building decks and evaluating how consistently they’ll play, many people struggle with how to calculate the probability of: Shadow Era How to Calculate Probabilities for your Deck Guide by shannong
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